US CoalVisionTM 2008
A Comprehensive Analysis of US Coal
Markets through 2025
US CoalVision™ 2008 is a comprehensive US Coal market supply and demand forecast through the year 2025 including steam coal price projections and detailed, regional supply perspectives across the US Coal industry. Instability and volatility in today’s coal markets pose unprecedented risks and opportunities for producers, consumers and investors alike. Industry participants need a practical and pragmatic assessment of future coal market conditions and prices to move forward with contractual and investment decisions.
US CoalVision™ 2008 provides you with a cost-effective means to assess market risks and to take advantage of market opportunities with confidence.
US CoalVision™ 2008 leverages John T. Boyd Company’s substantial understanding of US Coal mines and markets by combining the collective insights gained from decades of mining and market experience with a flexible, databased modeling approach.
Supply issues incorporated in the analysis include: future levels of coal mine productivity, regional mining costs, new mine development and corresponding lead times, capital investment requirements for increased production capacity, reserve availability, transportation costs, and the potential for coal imports.
Coal demand issues include: environmental compliance strategies at existing coal-fired power plants, the likely impacts of energy policies, and the future requirements for new coal-fired generation capacity
Topics Covered
US Electricity Markets
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Electricity Demand Through 2025
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New Generating Capacity Decisions
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US Electricity Generation by Fuel Source through 2025
Environmental Legislation and Mining Regulations
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U.S. EPA Clean Air Rules
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State Air Quality Initiatives
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Clean Water Act as Relates to the US Coal Industry
US Coal Demand
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Consumption for Electricity Generation
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Implications of Impending Environmental Regulations
- SO2 and NOx reductions
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US Domestic Metallurgical Coal Demand
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US Coal Exports
US Coal Supply Issues
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Diminishing Reserve Base in Appalachia
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Declining Productivity
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Large Capital Investment Requirements
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Rising Transportation Costs and Infrastructure Constraints
US Coal Supply Regions
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Northern Appalachia
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Central Appalachia
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Illinois Basin
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Powder River Basin
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Rocky Mountains
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Imports
Special Supplement - US Steam Coal Prices through 2025
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Why are Coal Production Costs So High? (Illustrative Example)
Reserves and mining conditions
Production and productivity
Labor, supply and coal handling costs
Financial results
Sample Insights
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The recent and ongoing surge in prices in most US Coal markets underscores the fundamental reversal of 20 years of excess coal supply.
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The current market price environment is NOT a “price spike” caused by a “perfect storm” of short-term market events, but an inevitable economic response to long-term shifts in the supply and demand for coal in the US
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Although short-term prices are expected to soften, the US coal industry is in a "demand-driven" pricing environment that appears sustainable for some coal products for many years.
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The industry’s response to future supply challenges will be complicated by operational and practical issues more severe than those experienced during the tumultuous 1970s, a period of declining productivity, labor strife, and increasing costs.
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Continued US and worldwide growth in coal-fired electricity generation will be tempered by increasingly restrictive global climate change initiatives in the US and abroad.
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Eastern generators that were first to feel the squeeze from reduced coal availability in 2004 are slowly rebuilding stockpiles.
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Long-term costs of coal supplies from most regions of the US will be much higher going forward.
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The next wave of SO2 emission restrictions will alter competitive coal markets more significantly than the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Product differentiation by sulfur content will become much less significant over the next 15 years.
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Robust market demand and supply shortfalls will provide the impetus for new metallurgical coal mine development in the US This new capacity will have much higher production costs than current mines.
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New high sulfur coal markets arising from over 120 GW of additional SO2 scrubbers on electric generating units will stretch the ability of producers in Northern Appalachia and the Illinois Basin to meet new demands.
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Expectations that natural gas electricity generation can and will meet projected increases in electricity demand over the next 15 years are unrealistic.
BOYD’s analysis of US steam coal is based on a sophisticated and detailed model of coal-fired generating units and regional coal products. Our model allocates available supply from each coal-producing region by minimizing the estimated busbar costs at generating units while meeting specific coal product requirements, air emission restrictions, and strategic coal sourcing and transportation objectives. Projected regional coal supply costs are based on our full understanding of mining economics considering existing and anticipated geologic conditions, capital investment requirements, lead times, and liabilities.
Please contact John T Boyd Company for further information:
United States Headquarter Office 724-873-4400
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